Why Are the Winklevoss Twins Talking About $500K for Bitcoin Price in the Future?

This number does not fall from the sky.

After exceeding $12K in the early hours of September 2020, the Bitcoin price suffered a strong correction. The strong rejection of the $12K barrier resulted in a general reversal of sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Fear is the dominant sentiment right now.

If you have full confidence in the Bitcoin revolution, this is probably a great time to take advantage of it and buy more Bitcoin.

When we talk about total confidence in the Bitcoin revolution, we think of the Winklevoss twins who are among the richest BTC owners in the world. They are also the founders of the Gemini trading platform.

The Winklevoss twins are often solicited by the media to give their opinion on the price that Bitcoin could reach in the future.

Given their interests in Bitcoin, some will object that they cannot be objective. Recently, following Jerome Powell’s unsurprising speech about maintaining the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy for the coming months, the Winklevoss twins said that they see Bitcoin reaching a price of $500K over the next decade.

If you have seen this news, you may have wondered why the Winklevoss twins are talking about a $500K price for Bitcoin.

After all, they could have bet on a $300K or $600K price for Bitcoin. But in the end, they talked about a $500K Bitcoin by the end of the decade. And it’s no coincidence that they talked about that price precisely.

The reasoning of the Winklevoss twins is based on three major elements:

  1. The law of supply and demand.

  2. The gold market cap.

  3. The endless inflation of the U.S. dollar.

The supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million units, and inflation of new Bitcoins will continue to slow down over time. Bitcoin also responds to the great need that will emerge in the coming years: that of protecting its wealth over time in a way that is resistant to censorship.

Applying the principles of the law of supply and demand, the Bitcoin price is set to rise sharply over the next decade.

In the face of a weakening U.S. dollar, the price of stores of value as gold and Bitcoin will continue to increase sharply. Bitcoin is objectively a better store of value than gold: scarcer, more portable, more divisible, non-confiscable, …

To get an idea of the potential market cap that Bitcoin can reach, the Winklevoss twins propose to use gold as a model, which is currently in the order of $9,000 billion.

If Bitcoin were to reach the gold market cap in this decade, this would give us a price of Bitcoin of around $428K based on the 21 million BTC that could be put into circulation.

You can see how we are already close to $500K.

Finally, the endless inflation of the U.S. dollar continues to devalue the value of the world’s reserve currency. This has allowed the price of an ounce of gold to increase by +5,754% since Richard Nixon established the current monetary and financial system in August 1971.

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This will have the same effect on the Bitcoin price. This endless inflation of the U.S. dollar will fill the remaining gap between $428K and $500K.

As I have just demonstrated, the hypothesis of a $500K price for Bitcoin is not based on a randomly given price. It responds to three major elements that I have just detailed in this article.

Once the year 2030 is over, I see Bitcoin capable of reaching the million-dollar mark by 2040 or 2050 based on the same arguments as the Winklevoss twins.

I am not alone in thinking this, as more and more economists and institutional investors are imagining such a scenario for the future of Bitcoin.

Before reaching this point and thinking about 2030, Bitcoin will already have to demonstrate that it can exceed $50K to approach $100K during its upcoming Bull Run that will take place during the year 2021.


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