The 7 Stages of a Bear Market – Where Are We With Bitcoin?
Probably between panic and accumulation/stabilization.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has seen its price move in a 4-year cycle. Each Halving marks the end and then the beginning of a new market cycle for the price of Bitcoin. Typically, you have between 18 and 24 months of Bull Market after the Bitcoin Halving, before two years of Bear Market.
By the end of 2021, many imagined the end of this 4-year market cycle for the price of Bitcoin with the assumption of a Bitcoin supercycle. What has been happening since the beginning of 2022 has put an end to this assumption. We are finally in the middle of a Bear Market, or at least a painful market. This has at least two positive sides, but many have difficulty perceiving this at the moment.
We will never know if the Bitcoin supercycle could have happened without the war in Ukraine which has added total uncertainty to the markets, sounding the death knell for assets perceived as risk-on by the general public.
I'm talking about perception here, because, for me, Bitcoin is not risk-on. On the contrary, Bitcoin gives you incredible guarantees in a world that is more uncertain than ever. But that's my perception. The perception of someone who understands why Bitcoin exists. That of someone who understands that Bitcoin is a unit of wealth that is not tied to any government or central bank.
Meanwhile, during the previous Bear Market, we have seen 7 distinct phases. Remembering these different phases will help you see the current situation for the Bitcoin market more clearly, and give you some perspective on what to expect emotionally in the coming months.