Sorry Bitcoin Bears, This Bull Run Is Not Over
3 metrics will help you understand this.
|Sylvain Saurel||Jan 6||7|
Bitcoin has been running a historic Bull Run since the beginning of October 2020. In just a few weeks, the Bitcoin price has risen from $10.5K to nearly $35K. This Bull Run has been driven by institutional investors, large companies such as MicroStrategy, or the arrival of PayPal into the Bitcoin world.
As the Bitcoin price continued to rise, many voices were raised to announce the imminent start of a major correction.
These Bitcoin Bears based their prediction on their experience in the Bitcoin world, but also by keeping in memory this famous quote from Mark Twain:
“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes.”
Since history often rhymes, these Bitcoin Bears thought that the Bitcoin price was going to do what it had done every time we had experienced such an intense Bull Run: a major pullback from 30 to 40%.
Every time the Bitcoin price dropped rapidly by more than 5%, the Bitcoin Bears have announced that the Bull Run was over. This has happened several times since the beginning of October 2020. The most recent was yesterday. While Bitcoin price started the year with a new All-Time High (ATH) on January 3, 2021, with a price of $34.8K, a significant drop in its price occurred on January 4, 2021:
In a few hours, the Bitcoin price lost -17% from $34.5K to $28.7K.
The Bitcoin Bears, but also the opponents of Bitcoin, were just waiting for this to come out of the woodwork. Soon we saw all kinds of tweets from people saying that Bitcoin was too volatile, or that Bitcoin price is manipulated.
Here is a tasty one from Nouriel Roubini :
It seems that Nouriel Roubini had been preparing his tweet for a long time. Throughout the Bitcoin Bull Run, Roubini must have been impatient to get his name back in the news by tapping on Bitcoin.
As always with Bitcoin opponents, Roubini chose the easy way out. Indeed, he took up the same totally false arguments that had always been used against Bitcoin. According to Roubini, Bitcoin has "zero intrinsic value or fundamental value". Roubini adds that Bitcoin is "totally manipulated via fiat Tether daily issuance, massive pump & dump schemes and whales".
I told you, Roubini was in great shape for the beginning of 2021.
Unfortunately for Roubini, Bitcoin price quickly rebounded to be back above $30K as soon as the market opened in the United States. The drop in the Bitcoin price was due to selling pressure from Asia. We are currently witnessing a real battle between American users willing to buy all the dips in the Bitcoin world, and Asian users who are putting significant selling pressure.
At the moment, it seems that buying pressure is winning, as the Bitcoin price has just gone back above $32K. The Bitcoin price is $32,448 at the time of writing.
Roubini will therefore have to wait a little longer before claiming victory. The fact that he was right once in his life regarding the subprime crisis in 2008 does not allow him to give an informed opinion on Bitcoin which is a disruptive technology that he doesn’t understand.
With Bitcoin, Roubini clearly reaches his level of incompetence. No need to blame him, it is the same thing with a whole bunch of economists who still don't understand how Bitcoin works. Thus, they are unable to understand why even above $30K, Bitcoin is the most undervalued asset in the world in terms of its fundamentals.
Bitcoin's current Bull Run is not yet over, no matter what the Bitcoin Bears may think. To help you understand what I am basing this on. I'm going to show you 3 metrics that you can easily follow. By looking carefully at these metrics you can get a better idea of whether or not a major Bitcoin correction is imminent.
1. Miner outflows
As you probably know, every time a miner in the Bitcoin network correctly adds a new block to the Bitcoin Blockchain, he gets the BTC reward associated with this block. Currently, the reward is 6.25 BTC per block mined correctly.
Miners are therefore incentivized to come and secure the Bitcoin network via this reward to which you can add the transaction fees. Nevertheless, the reward remains the most important part of the profits generated by the miners.
A good way to find out what miners think about the evolution of Bitcoin price is to see what they do with the BTC they get. When Bitcoin miners start selling BTC en masse, you can infer that they think the Bitcoin price will fall in the short term.
When Bitcoin miners choose to keep their BTC, you can infer that they are betting on the price of Bitcoin going up.
By observing the evolution of Bitcoin miners' outflows over the last few weeks, you can see that nothing abnormal is happening at the moment:
Minors do not believe that a major correction is imminent. They may be wrong, of course, but generally, they are heading in the right direction. So this is something you need to watch carefully.
2. The activity of Bitcoin Whales
Bitcoin Whales are persons or entities with addresses on the network with a very large amount of BTC. The higher the amount of BTC available, the more powerful the Whale is obviously.
It is always interesting to observe the transactions carried out by the Whales. Focusing on Whales with at least 10,000 BTC often gives relevant results on the trend that Bitcoin is expected to follow in the short term.
The current situation clearly shows us that the Whales continue to support this Bull Run. It has room to go even higher as long as the $28.5K is held for the Bitcoin price.
This is in fact what is happening. Indeed, since I started writing this article, the price of Bitcoin has risen significantly to above $34K. A new ATH above $35K may even have been beaten when you read this.
3. Funding rates
You probably don't know what the funding rate is. Funding rates are periodic payments either to traders that are long or short based on the difference between perpetual contract markets and spot prices. So, depending on open positions, traders will either pay or receive funding.
The sudden drop in the funding rate on major exchanges during yesterday morning's price drop is proof that derivatives played a large role in this price movement.
Nevertheless, the situation quickly returned to normal indicating that a broader correction was not yet in the cards. If the corrections are currently being driven by derivatives, this is not unusual. This is important for resetting funding and allowing for healthy growth.
So it is a situation that is good for the current Bull Run to continue to drive the price of Bitcoin even higher.
Contrary to what all the Bitcoin Bears have been announcing for several days or even weeks for some, this Bull Run is still far from over. Bitcoin price can still go much higher in the short term. If the $35K price were to be exceeded in the coming days, this Bull Run could quickly rise to $40K.
This would be a new historical barrier that Bitcoin could cross. No wonder when you realize how Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to its incredible fundamentals.
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