Some Musings on Bitcoin Distribution – More and More Long-Term HODLers and Illiquid BTC

This supply shock will sooner or later affect the price of Bitcoin.

On December 14, 2021, the number of circulating BTC has exceeded the total of 18,900,000. Thus, more than 90% of the Bitcoin supply has already been issued. This means that from today to 2140, less than 10% of the total supply of Bitcoin remains to be issued. That's less than 2,100,000 BTC.

That's not much when you consider that “only” 130 million users currently own Bitcoin and that the number of people on Earth is already 7.8 billion. This number is expected to continue to grow in the coming years to approach 10 billion by 2064 according to the latest UN estimates (9.7 billion).

On the other hand, the UNO predicts that the world population will decrease to 8.8 billion inhabitants in 2100.

Taking this figure of 8.8 billion inhabitants in 2100, this implies that there would be at most 0.002386 BTC per inhabitant if everyone had the same amount of BTC. Of course, you know that things don't work that way with Bitcoin.

If everyone has the same initial opportunities with Bitcoin, those who choose to embrace its revolution before others will benefit more than others. It makes sense that equal opportunity does not mean the same amount of BTC for everyone. Everyone has the amount of BTC they deserve by paying the price they deserve.

If the goal is still to own 1 BTC in full, some people have taken a big step forward as you will see. I had fun cross-checking different information on the claimed or estimated BTC possessions of some people. My goal is to give you an overview of the distribution of BTC at the end of 2021.

Overview of BTC distribution at the end of 2021