Bitcoin Seems Stuck in Its ATH Zone – Should You Buy Now?
The answer is really up to you.
|Sylvain Saurel||Mar 19||4|
After an extremely difficult end of February 2021, the Bitcoin price started March in the best possible way and finally broke the $60K barrier on March 13, 2021. This may have come as a surprise since March has historically been a bloody month for Bitcoin with big corrections.
It would seem that March 2021 seems to be giving the lie to Mark Twain's adage that history frequently rhymes. We might be in for a case where history doesn't rhyme. This time it's different after all …
After reaching a new ATH at $61.6K, the price of Bitcoin dropped slightly at the beginning of the week to hit a low around the $53.5K area. A rebound then took place on March 18, 2021, with the price of Bitcoin crossing the $60K mark again. A rejection occurred again as the price of Bitcoin fell back to around $56.8K.
As I write this, the price of Bitcoin is $58.7K, and we are stuck in this area between $57K and $60K.
Many hesitate to buy Bitcoin in the current price range
So we are stuck in the current ATH zone of Bitcoin price. The big question on everyone's mind is this:
Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?
After all, you've already heard many times in the stock market that you should never buy when a stock is stagnating in its newly defined ATH zone.
Indeed, it is often in these moments that we risk a major correction.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin is different from the stock market. Bitcoin is a paradigm shift. It is important to understand that even at $60K, the price of Bitcoin is still extremely cheap. Bitcoin is a monetary revolution that will change the world of the future.
But currently, only 100 million people own Bitcoin. That's just 1% of the world's population. So the potential for growth in the number of Bitcoin users is phenomenal. You can compare it to the potential growth of the Internet when we were in 1998 for example.
If you believe in the Bitcoin revolution, buying Bitcoin is a no-brainer
The demand for Bitcoin will therefore explode in the coming months and years.
In the face of this exploding demand, Bitcoin will see the issuance of new units invariably decrease over time. The limit of 21 million BTC that can be put into circulation will never be exceeded.
As a result, the price of Bitcoin can only rise sharply.
So if you have faith in the incredible adoption potential that awaits Bitcoin, you can choose to buy without fear even at $60K. We've already seen in 2017 that those who bought when Bitcoin was in its ATH zone near $20K ended up in profit.
It took a while, but it is still bounded by a 4-year cycle of Bitcoin. A cycle corresponding to the 4 years between each Halving.
Here, the question is whether you will be able to have enough confidence in Bitcoin to continue to be a no matter what HODLer even if its price were to fall after you buy BTC in its current ATH zone. If you have that level of confidence in the Bitcoin revolution, I think you didn't wait for my article to accumulate more BTC.
If you don't have that level of confidence in the Bitcoin revolution, then the situation is different.
If you still have doubts, there are some indicators to be wary of now
You should probably do a better job of thinking about how the price of Bitcoin might change in the days and weeks ahead.
Several indicators suggest that the price of Bitcoin may be stuck in this area for some time to come. Grayscale’s GBTC premium is declining again. It is around -8.4% currently. These negative values have been held for 17 days in a row:
We can see that the Coinbase premium indicator is neutral. This means that the higher demand from American investors is no longer there. It is this demand that has driven the price of Bitcoin even higher in recent weeks.
Nor are we seeing the influx of USD on the exchange platforms.
In short, the market is on hold. However, the stimulus checks sent by the US government to eligible citizens are coming in. This should be something bullish for the next few weeks.
But on the other side of the coin, we are seeing rates rise. US 10-year Treasury bond rates have reached 1.735%. They have almost doubled since the beginning of the year. So we could see retail investors being tempted by the safety of their stimulus checks.
As you can see, if you take a short-term view, you have reason to doubt. That's why I recommend patience and a long-term view.
In any case, you should keep an eye on the following resistances for the next few days: $60K, then $63K. If the Bitcoin price rises above $63K, we could quickly move back towards $70K, then $77K. Of course, the indicators that I revealed earlier will have to be on the right side for this to happen.
If the price of Bitcoin were to stagnate too long in the current zone, a retest of the $55K would take place. In case of a break, we would go to $52K. Big support with whales having made big purchases is at the $47K level. Below that support, we would be headed for $43K.
We are not there yet, but you can see the uncertainty is there now.
The answer to the question depends solely on your confidence in the Bitcoin revolution
The answer to the question asked in the preamble of this article will therefore depend on you and you alone. It is your level of confidence in the Bitcoin revolution that is being tested. You are the only one who can know what answer you will give based on the elements I have given you.
These elements will help you make the best decision for you. That is the only thing that matters. For my part, you already know my position: buying Bitcoin, even at $60K, is still a no-brainer. But again, this is just my opinion as a Bitcoiner.
It's up to you.
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