Bitcoin Has Been Above $10K for 100 Days - Will Its Price Ever Drop Below $10K Again?
Difficult to imagine such a scenario now.
|Sylvain Saurel||Nov 4|| 2|
It is November 4, 2020. At the end of this day, this day will forever be remembered in Bitcoin history as this of the first series of 100 consecutive days with a price above $10K. In fact, since the Bitcoin price surpassed $10K on July 27, 2020, it has never closed a day below $10K.
The previous record run lasted 63 days and was part of the 2017 year-end Bull Run. It was during this Bull Run that the Bitcoin price reached its historic high of around $20K.
Today, times have changed for the Bitcoin market, which is much more mature. This series of consecutive days with a price above $10K does not seem to stir anyone.
The past weeks have shown that $10K is even the new baseline for the Bitcoin price now.
This series has even withstood the month of September which is usually a bad month for the Bitcoin price.
The Bitcoin price then fell below $10K twice when testing the support of $9,850. Each time, the support held and a rebound allowed the Bitcoin price to close the day above $10K.
I have to admit that I didn’t think the series would last up to 100 days this time. Indeed, when Bitcoin dropped below $10K in September 2020, I thought we would end up closing the CME Gap at $9,650 which started on July 26, 2020.
I was wrong, and this shows once again that short-term forecasts for the Bitcoin price are nothing more than an expression of sentiment. Therefore, one should never give them more credit than that. That being said, we are now at the 100-day mark above $10K for the Bitcoin price.
The big question everyone is now asking is whether the Bitcoin price will ever fall below $10K again.
It is a question that really deserves to be asked as the Bitcoin price has made a breakthrough beyond $13K in this month of October 2020. The months of November and December are generally months when the Bitcoin price performs well.
Under these conditions, imagining the Bitcoin price dropping below $10K by the end of 2020 now seems difficult.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s fundamentals tell us that we are in the midst of an accumulation phase. The percentage of addresses that have been holding Bitcoin for more than a year continues to break records. The number of BTC stored on the exchange platforms has been falling since the beginning of 2020.
Everyone is preparing for the start of the Bitcoin Bull Run. Under these conditions, the trend is towards HODL Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin Hash Rate has fallen in recent days, it is more circumstantial than anything else. This corresponds to the end of the rainy season in Sichuan, China, which has resulted in the migration of many Bitcoin miners to other jurisdictions in China.
As Bitcoin Hash Rate becomes better distributed around the world, this problem will tend to disappear in the future.
Finally, addresses holding at least $1 on the Bitcoin network are also reaching historical levels. Everyone now realizes the importance of accumulating each Satoshi they can. This is essential, because in the future when talking in Satoshi rather than BTC will be the norm, it will make a big difference.
I won’t venture to answer the question definitively, but I must admit that I can’t see what could cause the Bitcoin price to drop below $10K in the coming weeks.
I am curious to know your opinion on the subject. Feel free to use the comments for that.
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