Bear Market or Not for the Bitcoin? Here’s What the On-Chain Indicators Are Saying.

6 charts to understand everything and form your own opinion.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen 30% since topping out at around $110K. I'm not telling you anything new here—you've seen it for yourselves and even experienced it for the more impatient among you. Market operators are currently wondering whether the Bear Market is already back when it wasn't expected so soon.

As always, macroeconomic conditions are playing a significant role. Everyone is waiting to see what Jerome Powell's Fed will do in the coming weeks and months in terms of monetary policy. It's a pity that too few people don't understand that the purpose of Bitcoin is to take us out of the Fed's playground ... But that's just the way it is, we have to deal with it and take it into account in the analyses we have to make of the Bitcoin market.

Looking beyond Bitcoin, you can see that the financial markets have tumbled. On the cryptocurrency market, it's a real bloodbath. Jerome Powell's unreassuring speech on March 19, 2025, after the second Fed FOMC Meeting of 2025 did little to reassure investors. The economy remains more uncertain than ever, especially as Donald Trump himself is unpredictable. The Fed expects the economy to deteriorate in the months ahead, and inflation to return as a result of Donald Trump's tariff increases. Two rate cuts at the end of the year remain on the agenda, but the Fed reserves the right to adjust its monetary policy at any time if economic conditions so require. In short, nothing new!

At the same time, the weekly 50-period average shows that Bitcoin is still in a good position to start rising again. The situation therefore looks very different from the one we experienced in 2022. To analyze this in greater depth, I propose a complete review of the Bitcoin market, taking a look at various on-chain indicators. The aim is to give you a better idea of what's in store for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead. After reading this article, you'll have all the information you need to form your own opinion on the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment: is this the start of the Bear Market, or just a slowdown in the Bitcoin Bull Market?

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