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Everything depends on the answer to a question that only Vladimir Putin has.

After several weeks of escalating tensions, the situation on Ukraine's eastern border is becoming clearer. Vladimir Putin has just officially recognized two separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine, the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic, as sovereign.

A few hours after this official recognition, Putin ordered Russian troops to come to these new autonomous regions in support.

This goes against international law for America and the European Union, which are in the process of announcing various graduated economic and financial sanctions against Russia. Germany froze a new gas pipeline and Britain hit Russian banks with sanctions for example. It is not this type of sanctions that will frighten Vladimir Putin, but the West could not remain idle after this offensive by Russia.

This first offensive by Putin has already made it possible to see more clearly by ruling out a potential scenario: that of a de-escalation without military action on the part of Russia. At present, there are two main possible scenarios concerning what Russia will do with Ukraine: